The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, current forecasts are predicting winds to shift to the northeast later today and continue east/northeast throughout the weekend before shifting westerly into Monday. This evening sustained wind speeds from the northeast are predicted to be 15 to 35 km/hr. Saturday through Sunday, sustained wind speeds from the east/northeast are predicted to increase to 2545 km/hr with gusts to 65 km/hr. Based on the wind forecast and the existing elevated Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair water elevations, a possibility of flooding, shoreline erosion and damaging waves exists along portions of the Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair shorelines. The potential areas most significantly impacted along the Lake Erie shoreline are the southeast shoreline of the Municipality of Leamington between Wheatley Harbour and the tip Point Pelee and the north and east sides of Pelee Island. The potential areas most significantly impacted along the shoreline of Lake St. Clair are the western portions of the Town of Lakeshore, the Town of Tecumseh and the eastern portions of the City of Windsor.
Areas along the shorelines of the Towns of Kingsville, Essex and Amherstburg and the shorelines of the Detroit River may also experience increased water levels due to lake setup resulting from the sustained east/northeast winds.
Due to elevated water levels, the City of Windsor should monitor water levels along the flood control dykes within the Little River Drain corridor.
Due to the northeast winds and elevated lake levels, the Municipality of Leamington should monitor the flood control dykes in the Southeast Leamington area.
In addition, significant rainfall is predicted for our region starting this evening and continuing throughout the weekend. Total rainfall amounts are predicted to range between 25 to 50 mm with the potential for up to 70 mm in isolated thunderstorms. The heaviest rain is predicted to occur Saturday night into Sunday morning. Based on the ground conditions and the current forecasted rain, there is the potential for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within the floodplain areas of all waterways and shoreline areas.
People should take extra caution and avoid shoreline areas during wind/lake wave events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping breakwalls and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets and livestock should be kept away from flowing, standing water and shoreline/breakwall areas.
Weather forecasts will continue to be actively monitored and updates provided if required. Based on the predicted duration of the sustained east/northeast wind and the Provincial estimate for lake elevations on Saturday, there is a high potential for this WATCH to be upgraded to a WARNING tomorrow.
Released: 3:30pm Friday, April 13, 2018
In effect until: 9:00am Monday, April 16, 2018